Bad Stats... a rant; and a long one at that!

Tell me if you heard this one before...
I know that sounds like I'm introducing a joke (and in a sense I am), but I'm talking about church statistics...

... Statistics say that the divorce rate is higher among church attenders as non-church attenders.
... Statistics tell us that as many as 80% of those attending church do not believe in a literal hell.
... Statistics say that somewhere around 52% of all statistics are made up.

Now, before I go off, an up front confession. As made evident by my 52% statement, I am very skeptical of statistics any time I see them. What can I say... I'm a "Gen X"er with a little Millennial thrown in.


Have you ever heard the 18 month statistic?
"Studies show that the average youth pastor lasts 18 months in one church."
I've heard it quoted in articles, in large settings, around the table with youth pastors, and I've thrown it out myself.

There's only one problem with this statistic. It's not true. Rick Lawrence, editor of Group Magazine was bothered over this. He couldn't find the actual research to back it up. When he heard it stated, he would ask people for it's source, and they couldn't. He took time to do some research and has shown it's fallacy. Here's an article talking about the 18 month myth.
Here's the sad part, look at the date of the article... Jan/Feb 2000!!! And it that stat is still thrown around?


The 88% stat?
Here's the stat I'm hearing like crazy right now, "88 percent of churched teens leave the church by age 28 never to return again."

It's talked about all over blogs (check out here, here, here, here,). When I was at the YS Convention in Anaheim I heard it referenced twice (not by speakers, but in conversations). I, along with others in our church have referenced it.

Crap! That's alarming! That's sickening, scary, and downright in need of attention! It makes every youth minister question their calling and wonder if what their doing is really making a difference in students.

It causes us to ask questions.
Are students seeing so much disconnect with their parents church life and everyday life that they've become convinced that church is irrelevant?
Are youth ministries missing the mark?
How do we combat the nomadic nature of the 18-25 young adult who that is dominantly in the higher education world?
How will the church at large seek to connect the twentysomethings into the greater church body?
Is the church on it's way to extinction?

I think these are important questions to be asking... very important.
But here's the question I can't get past... is the statistic accurate?

Here's some thoughts I want to throw out, and I encourage all who read to help me think through this:

• This stat has caused a lot of buzz around our church. I can tell you, if this statistic is at all true, I feel great about NMC Student Ministries. We have sent out an average of 50 seniors every year for the past four years. For the stat to be true for us, there would only be 24 students. As I sat in the Connection this last Sunday (Thanksgiving Sunday), I counted a little over 36 students from only the last 2 graduating classes sitting in that one service. Without going into a lengthy detail on this blog, I could give you enough evidence to help you see that those who have truly been involved in NMC Student Ministries are largely still involved in a church, and more importantly seeking an authentic walk with Christ.
  
• Looking at in in a broader sense, most who do any reference refer to a 2002 "report" by the Southern Baptist Convention. I can't find any factual research, but just statements that say "the SBC reports that roughly 88 %..." it has a bit of a, "if I were asked to give a number, I'd say..." to it.
  
• I'd like to see the actual research that brought this statistic about. If anyone reading this can direct me to the research and it's findings, let me know. In fact, I ran into a blog post that bantered about trying to substantiate this 88% stat, and they ran into the same issue I'm having... check out that blog here
• How do you prove this? To say that 88% leave the church never to return again would mean you are studying a teens church attendance in the 1930s and 40s, and then following them to death, correct? If this were the case, there's no way of knowing this is the current case. If it's going off more recent trends, how can one know they will never return. Never to return obviously needs to be dismissed.
  
• Let's say that it's more that 88% of teens are leaving the church in their 20s. How many are getting connected into healthy campus ministries like Intervarsity, Campus Crusade, Navigators, etc.? How many are re-entering later in their lives? How different is this than past generations? If you are in your 30s and 40s, how many of you re-entered the church after a few year's hiatus in your 20s?
  
• I'm 30 years old. I came from a fairly average youth ministry. It was good, but not great. We were full of "church attending kids" Most of us hadn't even made a significant commitment to Christ.When I graduated 1995, there were 12 Seniors that graduated with me. I can think of 5 others who were highly involved in our Youth Ministry while in High School, but left the church before graduation. As I run through those 17 individuals, I can track 12 of them. Of those 12, 9 of them are actively involved in a church right now (3 go to nmc and 3 are involved in full-time ministry).

I came across this research done by the Barna group. It states that it looks like as many as 61% of those in the mid to late 20s have become disengaged in Church attendance. I'm a little more ready to believe this statistic, as there is evidence of hard research here. But I still question the research (there's the gen Xer in me again):


From the linked Barna article:
In fact, the most potent data regarding disengagement is that a majority of twentysomethings – 61% of today’s young adults – had been churched at one point during their teen years but they are now spiritually disengaged (i.e., not actively attending church, reading the Bible, or praying).

From what I can tell in this article, "been churched at one point during their teen years" equals "they have attended a church for a period of at least two months during their teenage years." Yet to count as currently churched, a 20 something needs to be actively attending church, reading the Bible, and praying. Seems to be a little uneven comparison between the two age groups.

Also note that the research is inconclusive on how many 20somethings are or will re-enter the church at a later age.

So 61% still may be high.

What's the number?
I don't know.
And here's the crazy thing...as the percentages go down, I'm still concerned... BUT
"88% concerned" makes me ready to give everything up and quit.
"61% concerned" makes me wonder if there needs to be widespread change in how we parent and do church.
I want to see 0% or -15% because the church is continuing to grow as we age.

Here's what I see (these are observations, not scientific):

• The early 20s are a significant point of questioning, testing, and very likely prodigal moments. Most spiritually healthy late 20 year olds had to go through some level of battling through their faith.
• In my 10 years of watching students go out from our ministries, I can tell you that a "church attending" student is no way of judging if they will stay involved when they leave their parents home. A student living as a Christ Follower and bearing the fruit of the Spirit in their life is. There's still some surprises on both ends (those who aren't showing any fruit start to blossom, and those who are start to rot).
• I've personally watched (in this community I've grown up) as my graduating classmates have re-entered the church each passing year. They're coming back as their kids grow older, and as the prodigal realizes that their Heavenly Father has more to offer than the pig slop of this world.
• I've also seen my share of heartbreaks. There have been situations that have made me question if we made any difference when they were there.
  

So, here's my conclusion.

• Can we put the 88% stat to rest, unless someone can show some substantiated research?
• Let's (me included) look at stats before we throw them around.
  
• Let's realize that it's not a as bleak as that stat says,
  BUT
  
• Let's continue to realize that there is a void in the church when it comes to Young Adults.
• Let's together, youth ministries, families, campus ministries, adult ministries, and most importantly young adults themselves own this issue and seek to make sure individuals are living a lifelong faith.
• Let's pray like crazy for the 20 somethings out there... not that they would come to church, but that they would encounter Christ and own their faith in Him!

Okay, rant done. Not sure if all my thoughts here are fully coherent.

Any thoughts, counterthoughts, questions, further rants?

Special thanks to Tom Carpentar (nmc Senior High Intern). He did a research paper on this topic this Semester and pointed me to the Barna Research.